Optimism!

So people seem to be somewhat mystified why I'm still optimistic about this election, and this article explains it. Basically all the undecided voters vote against the incumbent, or as this article explains :

The percentage of the vote an incumbent president receives in surveys is an extraordinarily accurate predictor of the percentage he will receive on election day -- even though the survey results also include a pool of undecided voters. Hence the 50-percent rule: An incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave jeopardy of losing his job.

So as long as bush isn't polling above 50 in the majority of the swing states, or really the majority of the electoral college vote, we are doing well. And though this map looks awful, swinging your cursor over the swing states you quickly realize that Bush is simply not polling over 50. And if he is it's with in the margin of error on the poll - i.e. it could well be that he is not.

So I'm optimistic.

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