The Debate - The Polls
Mon Oct 4 2004 09:08 MDT #So the the post debate polls are out. And they are interesting. Kerry is ahead, in the nationwide polls for the first time in a month.
Newsweek shows Kerry 49, Bush 46 - a 14 point reversal from the Newsweek of 4 weeks ago. Diving in the numbers it gets even more interesting:
Thirty-nine percent of Republicans felt their man out-debated the challenger but a full third (33 percent) say they felt Kerry won.
Kerry, typically characterized as aloof and out of touch by his opponents, came across as more personally likable than Bush (47 percent to the president's 41 percent).
Nearly half of all voters (48 percent) say they do not want to see Bush re-elected, while 46 percent say they do. Still, a majority of voters (55 percent versus 29 percent) believe the president will be re-hired on Nov. 2.
I know some of those in the don't want but still expect category :)
And this paragraph just needs to be quoted in it's entirety :
Although the subject of the draft was only briefly addressed during the debate, four in ten voters (38 percent) believe that because of the war in Iraq which 50 percent of all voters now view as unnecessary a second Bush administration would reinstate the draft. Just 18 percent feel the same would happen if Kerry were elected. Nearly two thirds (62 percent) feel a draft should not be considered at this time and 28 percent said a draft should at least be considered. But only 46 percent feel going to war was the right decision in the first place with just as many (45 percent) under the impression that the administration deliberately misled the nation into war with falsified evidence of weapons of mass destruction.
The Washington Post relied on the Newsweek numbers for a higher level, more strategic article. It concentrate on the unexpected nature of the numbers. Most pundits / pols did not see the Bush loss in as strong terms the number would indicate that the electorate did. It takes that as a starting point the discuss the Tuesday Cheney-Edwards debates and the Friday rematch of Bush-Kerry. It's an interesting wonkish piece.